Theaters, movie rental stores, Redbox rentals in big box super stores, and Netflix: where to go, where to go, when you want to watch a movie? When charged to watch a movie based on a Philip K. Dick book, I consciously chose to rent from a local movie, music, and gaming supply store. They need my business. My community needs the tax base and the jobs created by the store. I will continue to support it as long as they are in business. Blockbuster and Movie Gallery have recently closed their doors and bowed to the convenience of door-to-door delivery and online movie streaming provided by Netflix. My neighborhood store may, indeed, be in jeopardy.
Netflix, founded in 1999, is the world’s largest subscription service for movies and television episodes over the Internet and by mail. According to the Netflix website, for $8.99 a month, members can instantly watch unlimited movies and TV episodes. No due dates. No late fees. In 2004, Netflix recorded nearly 2 million members (Desjardins, 2004). In 2009 they had 12.3 million subscribers. By 2010 they recorded more than 15 million subscribers. Anderson (2004) described four stages, or inflection points, where technologies collide, changing the technology and its impact on society. The stages are: critical price, critical mass, displacement, and low to no cost. By any definition, the information presented above provides evidence of these ‘collisions’. In the short decade since Netflix arrived on the scene, the critical price was established [Movielink offered movie downloads for $5 over a 24 hour period (Desjardins, 2004)], critical mass was achieved, the cost per unit rental has become negligible, and the big business rental stores were displaced by the technology and convenience of the emergent business.
Initially, Netflix presented a Red Queens challenge to the other movie rental businesses (Thornburg, 2009b). Incentives were offered; prices and availability of movies and services were juggled as the competing businesses fought to maintain their positions in the market. Before the end of the decade, however, the force of Increasing Returns dominated as Netflix forced the closure of the competing movie rental stores (Thornburg, 2009a). Before long, even DVDs may become obsolete as movie streaming gains ground. Bandwidth issues, however, must be addressed by ISPs before streaming can become the norm.
The following tetrad represents the four stages of how the movie industry has shifted due to emergent technologies:
In this PC World blog, Jacqueline Emigh (2009) predicts the death of the DVD due to movie downloads. Following her discussion are extensive comments, both in support of her arguments and against. http://www.pcworld.com/article/181345/best_buy_movie_downloads_is_the_death_of_the_dvd_nigh.html
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Anne,
ReplyDeleteI too agree with DVDs being obsolete, but they are trying to stay above water with the new additions of blu-ray, 3D, etc. I feel that DVDs are reversing what they were in the past. How do you feel about this approach?
Nikisha,
ReplyDeleteGiven time, and possibly shorter than longer, I feel that DVDs, including blu-ray, will all but disappear, or be replaced by another storage/transfer technology. People still demand a storage device outside of the Web. Perhaps it is a matter of distrust, perhaps it is a matter of convenience, or perhaps it is a matter of security. Regardless, data storage will surely be a matter for debate for some time to come.
LeAnn,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your informative post. It is interesting to read that VODs reached critical mass. I wonder what percentage of users of Netflix and comparable services have switched from renting physical DVDs? If the migration is growing rapidly, then we know for sure that VODs have reached critical mass. I wonder if customers use VOD services and DVDs in a complementary manner.
You have “Movies” in the center of the representation of McLuhan’s tetrad. Should that be VOD service instead because it enhances the personal definition of anytime-anywhere movie-watching experience, it obsoletes DVDs, it retrieves “story telling,” and it reverses into “immersive” holographic experiences.
Just thinking!
Thank you
David
David, I believe you are correct in your suggestion to relabel the center of the tetrad. I guess I was lax in referring to the evolution of movie delivery systems. But, you are mistaken on the author of the original post...my name is Anne, not LeAnn. (I do, however, have a sweet cousin by that name, so I consider it a compliment!) I sign my post with my initials: ATS
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